TotalEnergies’ Venus project in Namibia’s Orange Basin is one of Africa’s most significant oil discoveries in decades, with an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of light crude and 4.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The field, discovered in 2022, could produce up to 150,000 barrels per day and remain active for 30–40 years. Its ownership includes TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, Namcor, and Impact Oil & Gas. For Namibia, which previously lacked large-scale oil production, Venus could boost GDP by 20% by 2030 and transform its economic landscape.

However, the project faces formidable technical and strategic hurdles. Located in ultra-deep water 3,000 meters below the surface and 300 kilometers offshore, Venus is among the most complex offshore developments globally. A major dispute centers on how to handle the associated gas: Namibia wants it brought onshore to support domestic power generation, while TotalEnergies prefers reinjection to maintain reservoir pressure. This disagreement reflects broader tensions between national development goals and commercial feasibility.

TotalEnergies has revised its production strategy, lowering peak output from 200,000 to 150,000 barrels per day to prioritize long-term value over short-term gains. With Shell’s exit from Namibia, TotalEnergies now bears the full burden of infrastructure development, including potential LNG terminals and pipelines. Extending the project’s lifespan is seen as essential to justify these capital-intensive investments and ensure sustainable returns.

Negotiations have intensified under Namibia’s new president, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, who has centralized oversight through a presidential petroleum unit. The government is wary of repeating Guyana’s experience with unfavorable royalty terms and seeks a more equitable deal. TotalEnergies, meanwhile, warns that a final investment decision must be reached by year-end to meet the 2029 production target—a deadline that appears increasingly difficult amid unresolved fiscal and operational issues.

Economic viability remains uncertain. While TotalEnergies claims a breakeven price of $20 per barrel, analysts suggest $35 is more realistic given the depth and complexity of Venus. Shell’s recent $400 million write-down on nearby prospects underscores the risks of high gas content and poor reservoir quality. Despite these challenges, Namibia is pursuing diversification with a $10 billion green hydrogen initiative and growing Chinese investment in energy and infrastructure. Venus stands as both a transformative opportunity and a cautionary tale of frontier energy development.