Despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices are expected to remain capped below $70 per barrel for the rest of the year. According to market analysts and investment banks, without an actual disruption in oil supply from conflict zones, prices will continue to be dictated by the basic principles of supply and demand. At present, the oil market is flush with supply, and economic uncertainties are casting doubt on the strength of future demand.

OPEC+ continues to increase production, though the actual rise is somewhat lower than the headline figures suggest. Still, this added output is projected to tip the market into oversupply as we move into autumn. While the summer travel season might boost short-term demand, concerns about trade policies and a shaky global economy are expected to keep oil prices from rising significantly. Most analysts agree that crude will remain in the mid-$60s per barrel and average below $70 for the year 2025.

Experts like Rob Thummel, a senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, believe that for oil to return to its "normal" price in the $70s, either global production needs to fall or demand must rise more than anticipated. Similarly, Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank highlights challenges facing oil in the second half of the year due to increasing output and sluggish economic growth. OPEC+ is also ramping up production in part to penalize countries that have exceeded quotas and to win back market share from higher-cost producers.

Forecasts from major institutions—including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan—expect Brent crude to average around $66.32 per barrel and WTI at $63.03 in 2025. These numbers, while slightly up from previous months, still reflect the prevailing view that the market is oversupplied. A Reuters poll supports this outlook, showing only modest increases in price expectations, reinforcing the belief that any price rally will be capped unless there's a significant geopolitical shock.

Looking ahead, much depends on external factors like global trade developments. The end of President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause on July 9 introduces another layer of unpredictability. If new tariffs are introduced, economic activity—and in turn oil demand—could take another hit. For now, with supply outpacing demand and no immediate disruptions on the horizon, oil prices are likely to remain subdued, hovering below the $70 mark through the remainder of the year.