US officials have repeatedly voiced enthusiasm for expanding trade in critical minerals with Central Asia, emphasizing the region’s strategic importance for the US economy and national security. Julie Stufft, nominated as US envoy to Kazakhstan, highlighted that nearly half of the minerals deemed critical by the US Geological Survey are found in Kazakhstan. She stressed that encouraging US investment in this sector and countering Chinese influence are top foreign policy priorities. These remarks align with statements from other senior officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, underlining Washington’s intent since Donald Trump returned to the presidency.

Central Asian states appear receptive to US involvement and eager to diversify trade away from Chinese dominance, yet some regional officials privately note a lack of concrete follow-through from Washington. While US engagement remains mostly rhetorical, China has been actively securing agreements to strengthen its position. A key example is the August 6 deal between China National Gold Group and Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Mining and Geology, covering exploration, joint ventures, technology transfers, and financing for critical minerals projects.

China’s initiatives extend beyond mining. In late July, Chinese entrepreneurs proposed a \$500 million fund for Uzbekistan’s green minerals development, including joint research and environmental standards. Uzbek authorities also showed interest in a Chinese-backed metallurgical industrial park near Tashkent. Additionally, Chinese firms are expanding into other sectors such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence, as shown by a July 24 agreement between Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy and Shanghai Linkwise Data Intelligence to build a large-scale data center in Bukhara.

Analysts warn that even if the US ramps up efforts, competing with China will be difficult due to infrastructure, governance, and geopolitical hurdles in the region. The Atlantic Council notes that meaningful US-Central Asian trade in critical minerals hinges on developing the Middle Corridor transport network, which is currently limited in capacity and costly to use. Estimates suggest €18.5 billion in investment is needed to make the corridor commercially viable, without which US businesses may face high financial and strategic risks in pursuing Central Asia’s mineral wealth.