Angola is increasingly turning to natural gas as a cornerstone of its energy future, recognizing that its recent short-term oil production gains are unlikely to last. Despite leaving OPEC in early 2024 over production quota disputes, the country continues to face declining oil output from aging fields. While two new oil projects were recently launched, analysts and officials expect oil production to fall from over 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) today to about 1 million bpd by 2027.

In contrast, Angola’s natural gas sector is showing strong growth potential, with output projected to rise sharply by 2030. A major discovery by Azule Energy—a joint venture between BP and Eni—confirmed significant gas reserves offshore, including over 1 trillion cubic feet of gas and up to 100 million barrels of condensates. This was Angola’s first dedicated gas exploration well, and it has opened up new exploration opportunities in the Lower Congo Basin.

International energy companies see Angola’s gas resources as strategically important, particularly for supplying liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe and Asia. BP executives emphasized that the discoveries are close to shore and highly developable, while Azule Energy’s CEO highlighted Angola’s potential to uncover additional reserves in its prolific basins. The gas discoveries are therefore seen as a “landmark moment” that could transform Angola into a major LNG exporter.

Meanwhile, Angola continues efforts to maintain oil output. Azule Energy and TotalEnergies recently brought new projects online, including the Agogo FPSO, Ndungu fields, and subsea tiebacks at BEGONIA and CLOV Phase 3, together adding over 200,000 bpd of potential capacity. Yet, these developments may not be enough to offset declines from mature fields. At the same time, oil revenues have fallen due to lower global prices, slipping 4% in the second quarter of 2024 to $5.6 billion, while LNG and gas exports generated $755 million.

Looking ahead, the New Gas Consortium (NGC), led by Azule Energy alongside Sonangol, Chevron, and TotalEnergies, is set to deliver Angola’s first large non-associated gas project. The consortium recently completed offshore platforms at Quiluma and Maboqueiro, with gas production expected by late 2025. Analysts view this project as a critical test for Angola’s ability to monetize gas resources, signaling a shift in the country’s energy strategy from a heavy reliance on oil toward building a sustainable gas export industry.