Global oil prices have remained relatively stable this week, but beneath the surface, seismic shifts are reshaping the energy landscape. Brent crude hovered around $65 per barrel, while WTI settled just below $61—both slightly down from the previous week. Yet, the calm masks a storm of geopolitical maneuvering, trade realignments, and supply chain recalibrations.

🇺🇸 The latest tremor came from Washington, where the Trump administration imposed fresh sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. These measures, following similar moves by the UK, are part of a broader strategy to pressure Moscow over its stance on Ukraine. The sanctions target critical infrastructure—shipping, insurance, and trading networks—that Indian refiners had relied on to import discounted Russian crude.

🇮🇳 India, which imports 86% of its oil, had been a major beneficiary of Russian discounts, often scoring barrels $8–$12 cheaper than Middle Eastern benchmarks. At its peak, India was importing 1.75 million barrels per day from Russia. But the new sanctions have narrowed those discounts and raised transaction risks, prompting Indian refiners to pivot toward costlier U.S. and Middle Eastern grades. In October, U.S. crude imports into India surged to 575,000 barrels per day—the highest in three years.

This shift comes at a price. “Elevated crude prices may widen the fiscal deficit and strain the import bill,” warns Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments. With Russian oil’s share in India’s import basket dropping from 36% to 34%, the economic ripple effects could be significant.

Analysts at Standard Chartered say the future of oil prices hinges on how much Russian supply is removed from global markets. Rosneft and Lukoil exported 1.9 million barrels per day via sea last year, mostly to India and China. China also imported 800,000 barrels per day via pipeline. If both nations begin substituting Russian Urals with barrels from the U.S., Middle East, Brazil, Canada, or West Africa, Russia could face a steep uphill battle.

In response, Russia is doubling down on its courtship of Chinese energy buyers. Gazprom and Beijing recently inked a deal to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, while Rosneft agreed to boost pipeline volumes via Kazakhstan. But replacing Indian and Chinese demand won’t be easy.

All eyes now turn to OPEC+, which meets virtually on November 2. Standard Chartered expects the group to stick with its plan of adding 137,000 barrels per day to the market monthly. Iraq’s compliance with its compensation cuts—130,000 barrels per day in September and October—will be closely watched, especially as Kurdistan resumes exports to Türkiye after a 2.5-year pause.

Meanwhile, a fire at Iraq’s Zubair-1 depot may have disrupted 400,000–600,000 barrels per day of Basra medium crude. With Iraq exporting 3.4 million barrels per day this year—64% of it to India and China—any long-term disruption could further complicate efforts to replace Russian supply.

The global oil market is no longer just about barrels and benchmarks. It’s a high-stakes chessboard where trade policy, diplomacy, and infrastructure decisions shape the future of energy security. As alliances shift and sanctions bite, the next move could redefine the rules of the game.