A “shadow fleet” of tankers is quietly growing across the world’s oceans, loaded with sanctioned barrels from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. For now, much of this crude remains sidelined, floating offshore without buyers. But the sheer scale of oil in storage could soon shake global markets—depending on whether it eventually finds its way into refineries.

🇷🇺 Russia’s exports have been under intense scrutiny as Chinese and Indian buyers cancel orders, turning instead to Middle Eastern and American crude. The sanctions have complicated logistics, forcing Russia to seek new routes and buyers for its discounted barrels.

🇮🇷 Iran is facing similar hurdles. Deliveries to China—its main customer—have dropped from 1.44 million barrels per day earlier this year to less than 1.2 million. As a result, Iranian oil in floating storage has doubled since August, topping 36 million barrels. Analytics firm Vortexa estimates that total Iranian crude at sea, including transit volumes, has surged to 161 million barrels.

📊 Asia has become the epicenter of this buildup. Kpler data shows floating storage there jumped by 20 million barrels in just two months, reaching 53 million barrels. OilX puts the figure even higher—70 million barrels by late October. Venezuelan crude has also piled up, with volumes at sea rising to 72.3 million barrels.

⚖️ Analysts warn this glut could swing prices in unexpected ways. If the barrels find buyers, they would worsen the oversupply already weighing on markets. If they remain stranded, however, prices could stabilize or even rise. Bloomberg reports that sanctioned oil accounts for 20–40% of the recent surge in barrels on water.

🗣️ “This is unprecedented, the size of that,” said Torbjorn Tornqvist, CEO of trading giant Gunvor, at the ADIPEC conference. He noted that floating storage is helping balance the market for now, but if sanctions were lifted, oversupply would be overwhelming.

📈 The International Energy Agency (IEA) added to the concerns, reporting that global oil supply has grown by 6.2 million barrels per day since January. Even with October production down slightly, inventories remain bloated. Oil on water rose by 80 million barrels in September, contributing to a 77.7-million-barrel increase in global stocks.

🔮 The outlook is clear: oversupply is here, and it will keep pressuring prices. Yet the fate of these sanctioned barrels remains the wild card. If demand surprises to the upside, prices could rebound before sellers find new buyers. For now, though, the shadow fleet looms as a reminder of how geopolitics and sanctions can reshape the energy market overnight.